9/7: Quick Warmup before Mid-Week Storms and Much COOLER Blast

Good Sunday,

Talk about a "cooler" Sunday we experienced here in Middle TN with Highs only in the Upper 70°s before late afternoon Sunshine made a peek.

Slightly above Average Temps will make a Return though as Ridging will develop from the South and spread Mid-Upper 80°s across the region.  I do think Wednesday could be the 'Warmer' day with highs creeping in Upper 80°s-Lower 90°s with Humidity building back in.
*NOTE* the Much cooler Air surging from the High Plains into the 50's/60's in some spots.  Light SNOW is possible up in Wyoming, Montana and maybe South Dakota

NAM FORECAST TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY

STORM CHANCES on Thursday?
A sharp Cold Front will blast farther South towards the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with chances of Strong to Severe Storms, but right now it looks to be Small Hail and High Winds as the greatest risk.  Timing is still hard to tell, but from Late Morning to Early Evening Thursday is the best Time-frame when the Storms should drop through. 

GFS Precip at 1PM Thursday

BEHIND the Front, Frost is possible in the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, but ahead of it is will be the potential of Strong Storms from the Northeast down towards the ArkLaTex.













EARLY FALL for MiddleTN?

Long Range models may suggest that after Wednesday, that could be our LAST 90°+  Day, but as how Climate changes, we can't just assume right now. However, below average Temps about 5-10° are likely beginning Thursday once the Front drops. GFS/EURO Models suggest anywhere from 74-79° for daytime Highs ~ OPEN A/C! We will see how the trends continue through the week with the Temps and any Storm Threat for MiddleTN.

THURSDAY's Forecast Highs 

4/14: WINTER makes a Return in the Spring

Evening Folks,

Snow chances look to be slim, but will be a Frosty and Freezy Night along the Corridor. NWS Louisville has issued a Freeze Watch for a good chunk of the area.

Temperatures will likely dip below Freezing so bundle up as you head out the door in the Morning for your Commute to work.  

TUESDAY itself looks to Cold, but Sunny & Dry.

< A Canadian Trough drops in with a cool Northwest Flow across the Corridor.  Below Avg Temperatures will follow in the Lower 40°s after a few spotty Freezing Drizzle Showers.


Slightly Warmer & Mild on Wednesday, but MUCH Warmer on Thursday with Above Avg. Temperatures climbing.

11/25: Monday/Tuesday WINTRY MESS

Evening Folks,

Talk about a Mess.  This is a Classic Over-Running of Moisture setup for the Ohio Valley and I-65 Corridor. 

Knowing what Precipitation you will receive this evening is very difficult, Folks.  All depends on what the Low Levels are showing; from the Clouds to the Surface.  SLEET vs FREEZING Rain is hard because it all depends on "deep" or "shallow" your Warm Air is below the Clouds.  Here is a great Illustration what I am talking about:

^^ REMEMBER, Snow falls when the Atmosphere is COLD from the Top to Bottom of the Surface.

Lets get right to the Short-Range Model Data with my in-house RPM Data.  So far, it has nailed the Timing for Southern KY with the Snow.  As we roll into Midnight/1AM, here is what we could see:

<< This should be "Light" Precip for many,  but Safe Travels TO ALL who have any Plans.  Mixture of Sleet/Rain for Central/Southern KY and Light Snow/Sleet for Louisville area along the Corridor.








TUESDAY MID-LATE Morning:  The Precipitation should transition to a slightly 'warmer' Solution so maybe some Cold/Liquid Rain for much of S-Central KY and could catch a break by the Noon time-frame for much of Western KY.  Mix-Rain for L'ville Area but the main action still remains off to the East.  

..Do think the BEST Snow should stay farther Northeast in the Mountains of WV/PA in the Higher Elevations.









TUESDAY EVENING:   (BELOW) Now this is when the Cold Front drops completely into KY.  Once the Air Temp drops in the Lower 30°s, the Precipitation should change to Light Snow with a weak band of Accumulation on the back side of the System.  * Note:  ALL DEPENDS on how much moisture is left once the Temperatures drop below freezing.  *

HOW MUCH SNOW???    ** NOT A BIG SNOW, but its more of a Festive Feel before Turkey Day**
1) One of the best things I use to Forecast here in Wyoming, and also anywhere is a Meteogram. It shows the Range of all Models.   From various spots along the Corridor I see mostly a Trace-1".  Also, can't rule out an isolated spot of  2" too where some of the Banding could be 'heavier' at times.
2)  Now this is the RPM Run.  Snow likely with very light amounts from a T-2". How much Moisture is left depends the amount of snow.  LARGER Amounts likely from I-75 and Points Eastward toward the Mountains

11/19: TUESDAY Evening Post & More Storm Reports

Good Tuesday Evening,

It was Dry but a Cool day for many.  Temperatures were about 10° below average, but a slight Warmup is in the near Future.

I did slight 'warm-up' so it looks like we'll start seeing that by Thursday:

NAM is painting 60-65 for the Louisville area and Warmer farther South in the Lower 70°s from Bowling Green and in the Nashville areas.











FRIDAY looks to be more "Showery" than Stormy, so thats a good thing to hear as a Cool Front stalls in the Corridor area.

SUNDAY STORM REPORTS:  

* Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: Princeton [Caldwell Co, KY] nws storm survey reports TORNADO at 17 Nov, 03:18 PM CST -- ef1 tornado with no fatalities or injuries. beginning 3nw princeton to 1ne of town. pk wnd 100 mph. max path width 200 yds. length 4 miles. partial roof and wall loss to large metal bldg. several power poles snapped. several homes and businesses with partial shingle loss. dozens of trees snapped or uprooted.

* Local Storm Report by NWS PAH: 4 SW Nortonville [Hopkins Co, KY] nws storm survey reports TORNADO at 17 Nov, 03:32 PM CST -- ef3 tornado. 4 miles sw of nortonville to 3 miles se of white plains. peak wind 140 mph. max path width 200 yards. path length 8 miles. 1 minor injury. no fatalities. 4 homes destroyed, including 1 double wide. a dozen homes with minor to moderate damage. several sheds and barns destroyed. hundreds of trees snapped and uprooted. most of the major damage along red hill road.

ANOTHER Thing to Report is from the Indiana Side:  Indiana surveyed 23 Reports of Tornadoes from Sunday; *the 3rd most tornadoes on any day in Indiana recorded history. * 

11/18: SUNDAY Review & Storm Reports

Good Monday Evening Everyone,

I think many drew a glancing blow along and East of the Corridor, however that was different on the other side of the State.  I want to say HEAVY HEARTS to the Victims who lost anyone or had damage from the Storms. 

- These are the Filtered Reports and the hardest hit states were Illinois/Illinois/ Ohio/ & Western KY.












Many have heard already of the Devastating Tornado hitting Washington, IL that East of Peoria. Here is an aerial photo of showing the Multiple Vorticies swirling through the Field after demolishing a Family Farm with courtesy of Chicago-Times Tribune

DAMAGE REPORTS:

1) From the Storm that Impacted Butler County near Morgantown in Huntsville, click HERE for the EF-1 Tornado
2) From Western KY near Morganfield, KY in Union Co, click HERE on the EF-3 Tornado
3) From Western KY West of Paducah that crossed over Southern IL of the EF-3 Tornado, click HERE


MORE Survey Reports will most likely continue on Tuesday, so I'll have the very latest in the Next Post.  Until then, stay Warm.

-ms

11/16: Sunday STORMTalk

Good "Early" Morning Folks,

This is something I used to do when I first created I 65 Weather which is a blog post.  Lets Talk about Sunday!

NEWEST Data from the SPC has arrived late and lets talk about it. First the Synopsis:  It will be a balmy and breezy Afternoon for much of the Corridor from Central IN towards the KY/TN State Line.  Temperatures should stay well-above Average possibly in the Upper 60°s-Lower 70°s ahead of the Line, IF we see any breaks of the Clouds.  ANY Breaks will enhance our moisture and storm chances, so keep a close eye on that.


SPC Outlook for Sunday:

< ALL of IN is pretty much along that Moderate Risk including the I-65 Corridor from Indy towards the Ohio River.  Moderate Risk does include for North-Central KY from the Western KY/Bluegrass Parkway and points North.

Cities such as: E'town/Louisville, Shelbyville, Shepherdsville, Northern KY are in the Risk.
- Slight Risk for the rest of the Corridor along and South of WK/Bluegrass KY.

<< SPC does have the "Enhanced" Risk of 45% for a good chunk of where that MODERATE Risk is placed & even the Southern Parts of KY is placed in that Hatched of 30% .  When it comes to the Hatch it means: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.




THOUGHTS: As I have been watching the data rolling in past couple nights and especially this evening, I though Central-Southern IN were in the worse spot to see the most severe activity.  Right now, I think strong damaging winds will be the main threat.  

<< HERE is the Evening data run from the GFS showing the Mid-Level Wind Field.  The Purple colortable shows 100-120kts ~ 115-130 mph of Jet Stream Energy diving in the Hoosier area.  Louisville will have a High Wind Threat, but I think Indiana could see worse effects, at this time,  once we roll into Sunday Afternoon-Early Evening Hours.




I do think there is a TORNADO Threat, not just the Wind Damage event.  There are a lot of Dynamics with this Storm. Any Sunshine (Diurnal Heating) can increase the Temperatures/Moisture so we have to watch closely.  Lots of Shear or wind changing in direction with Height is likely from Low to Upper Levels do support Spin-Ups, some "could" be strong.

<< Tornado Parameters are quite High for Western IN, but Moderate along the Ohio River.  Remember, anything above a '1' is enough for Tornado Potential. This is by late Afternoon Sunday.







We will keep you posted through the Day on Saturday AND on Sunday.  

STAY WEATHER ALERT, STAY WEATHER AWARE

-MS