Talk about a Mess. This is a Classic Over-Running of Moisture setup for the Ohio Valley and I-65 Corridor.
Knowing what Precipitation you will receive this evening is very difficult, Folks. All depends on what the Low Levels are showing; from the Clouds to the Surface. SLEET vs FREEZING Rain is hard because it all depends on "deep" or "shallow" your Warm Air is below the Clouds. Here is a great Illustration what I am talking about:
Lets get right to the Short-Range Model Data with my in-house RPM Data. So far, it has nailed the Timing for Southern KY with the Snow. As we roll into Midnight/1AM, here is what we could see:
<< This should be "Light" Precip for many, but Safe Travels TO ALL who have any Plans. Mixture of Sleet/Rain for Central/Southern KY and Light Snow/Sleet for Louisville area along the Corridor.
TUESDAY MID-LATE Morning: The Precipitation should transition to a slightly 'warmer' Solution so maybe some Cold/Liquid Rain for much of S-Central KY and could catch a break by the Noon time-frame for much of Western KY. Mix-Rain for L'ville Area but the main action still remains off to the East.
..Do think the BEST Snow should stay farther Northeast in the Mountains of WV/PA in the Higher Elevations.
TUESDAY EVENING: (BELOW) Now this is when the Cold Front drops completely into KY. Once the Air Temp drops in the Lower 30°s, the Precipitation should change to Light Snow with a weak band of Accumulation on the back side of the System. * Note: ALL DEPENDS on how much moisture is left once the Temperatures drop below freezing. *
HOW MUCH SNOW??? ** NOT A BIG SNOW, but its more of a Festive Feel before Turkey Day**
1) One of the best things I use to Forecast here in Wyoming, and also anywhere is a Meteogram. It shows the Range of all Models. From various spots along the Corridor I see mostly a Trace-1". Also, can't rule out an isolated spot of 2" too where some of the Banding could be 'heavier' at times.
2) Now this is the RPM Run. Snow likely with very light amounts from a T-2". How much Moisture is left depends the amount of snow. LARGER Amounts likely from I-75 and Points Eastward toward the Mountains
No comments:
Post a Comment