11/16: Sunday STORMTalk

Good "Early" Morning Folks,

This is something I used to do when I first created I 65 Weather which is a blog post.  Lets Talk about Sunday!

NEWEST Data from the SPC has arrived late and lets talk about it. First the Synopsis:  It will be a balmy and breezy Afternoon for much of the Corridor from Central IN towards the KY/TN State Line.  Temperatures should stay well-above Average possibly in the Upper 60°s-Lower 70°s ahead of the Line, IF we see any breaks of the Clouds.  ANY Breaks will enhance our moisture and storm chances, so keep a close eye on that.


SPC Outlook for Sunday:

< ALL of IN is pretty much along that Moderate Risk including the I-65 Corridor from Indy towards the Ohio River.  Moderate Risk does include for North-Central KY from the Western KY/Bluegrass Parkway and points North.

Cities such as: E'town/Louisville, Shelbyville, Shepherdsville, Northern KY are in the Risk.
- Slight Risk for the rest of the Corridor along and South of WK/Bluegrass KY.

<< SPC does have the "Enhanced" Risk of 45% for a good chunk of where that MODERATE Risk is placed & even the Southern Parts of KY is placed in that Hatched of 30% .  When it comes to the Hatch it means: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.




THOUGHTS: As I have been watching the data rolling in past couple nights and especially this evening, I though Central-Southern IN were in the worse spot to see the most severe activity.  Right now, I think strong damaging winds will be the main threat.  

<< HERE is the Evening data run from the GFS showing the Mid-Level Wind Field.  The Purple colortable shows 100-120kts ~ 115-130 mph of Jet Stream Energy diving in the Hoosier area.  Louisville will have a High Wind Threat, but I think Indiana could see worse effects, at this time,  once we roll into Sunday Afternoon-Early Evening Hours.




I do think there is a TORNADO Threat, not just the Wind Damage event.  There are a lot of Dynamics with this Storm. Any Sunshine (Diurnal Heating) can increase the Temperatures/Moisture so we have to watch closely.  Lots of Shear or wind changing in direction with Height is likely from Low to Upper Levels do support Spin-Ups, some "could" be strong.

<< Tornado Parameters are quite High for Western IN, but Moderate along the Ohio River.  Remember, anything above a '1' is enough for Tornado Potential. This is by late Afternoon Sunday.







We will keep you posted through the Day on Saturday AND on Sunday.  

STAY WEATHER ALERT, STAY WEATHER AWARE

-MS