2/15: WINTER STORM on its way...

COLD Morning for many as the Mercury dropped in the Lower Teens for much of Southern KY and Middle TN. Highs for SUNDAY will crack only in the Upper 20°s for SoKY and Lower 30°s for Middle TN with Dry and Partly Sunny conditions as Clouds will increase this Evening

TONIGHT, conditions will deteriorate after 10PM as our Weather maker comes into play.  However, some "dry air" may work in as our Humidity and Dew Points will need to take some time to rise as the Temperatures drop.  Longer we have Drier Air, Snow Amounts will drop.. THAT will be the factor.

Right Now:  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all of Southern KY and MiddleTN through late Monday Night.

Note how this Storms stretches a good chunk of the MidSouth and even up towards the Mid Atlantic too.  It will begin late this Afternoon to our West in MO/AR and then through Monday Morning, it will crank up in our Region.










Some Models still aren't agreeing the timing but you got to expect it since the Low is still in WY/CO as it'll travel South and East into the ArkLaTex later tonight.  I think the Evening Data will be much better to work with.  NAM and GFS are suggesting the best start time somewhere late tonight and early Monday morning.  Here is the GFS's Timing and Snow/Sleet Track





The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast showed astounding Snow Potentials in %'s with 8"+ and 12"+ for Southern KY.  Haven't seen amounts like this in many years.

** This shows you the "Percentage" of 8"+ for Southern/Central KY but not so much for Middle TN.  I think Middle TN could be on the fence as 'sleet' could accumulate too.

** For some of you in KY, this could be a Snowfall some haven't seen in about a Decade.  I think the Highest chance of seeing that Foot, will be in Southeastern KY near the Mountains where Upslope could take shape up.

So far, this is an "Over-Running" event where bands of moisture will pour heavier amounts in isolated spots.






Showed this Earlier, but my thoughts on the amounts are close to what the RPM is suggesting
-- Southern KY:  6-10" (Isolated 10-12")
-- Middle TN:  3-8" (Sleet may mix in so these totals could drop)  Plateau: 5-10"

Once the Newest data arrives from the Evening Runs, I'll post later tonight.  As for rest of the Day, stay warm and take any precautions and stock up if needed.