A Cool/Dreary Wednesday, but COOL Turkey Day

TONIGHT

Clouds will increase from the West into the TN/OH Valleys as our next system will usher in rain chances Wednesday.  Lows will drop in the Lower 30°s



WEDNESDAY

- Overall it will stay Mostly Cloudy and Cool with Highs only reaching near 50 for much of Middle TN & Southern KY.

 < ALL Guidance Models shows this weak Clipper, Disturbance still dropping through the region in the Afternoon and into the rush hour for Evening.
SAFE TRAVELS as I remind you it the busiest traveling day of the year.

- A Cold Rain likely but once the "cooler air" ushers in, changeover to Lgt Snow is possible in Central KY and maybe into The Plateau around Crossville/Jamestown area's.   IF there is any Accumulation, it will be Light NORTH into Central KY.  Very Isolated strip of Accumulation shows up on the RPM as parts of Plateau and Central KY may see a Dusting-1/2". An isol'd heavier band could drop a little over an Inch to maybe 2"

 

 

 

TURKEY DAY:
Cold and Clear, but Mostly Sunny with Highs only making it into the Mid-Upper 40°s across the TN/OH Valleys.     DRY is the Word :)

11/24: TURKEY Week Forecast for MidTN

Quite a Breezy Day this Afternoon across MidTN on this Monday as winds were upto 40mph, propelling some "Warm Air Advection" with Temperatures quite Mild

NOW, the Front has passed as it moves East into the Carolina's. Clearing skies and cool conditions with Temperatures dropping in the Mid-30°s this evening.

 


* A weak Trough will not usher in much with precipitation wise, but any snow will stay North in the Great Lakes.











TUESDAY
  A very benign day with partly cloudy skies and light winds with High Pressure building in as Temperatures should stay creep near the low 50°s.

WEDNESDAY   (BUSIEST Traveling Day of the Year)
  - A weak Vort Max or Disturbance will trickle out of the High Plains and could drop in the Ohio/TN Valleys with some Rain and Mix chances through the Afternoon & Early Evenings. NOT a significant event, but all Guidance Models suggest this wave causing a nuisance IF your traveling.

NAM 12z Run valid for Wednesday Evening

GFS 12z run valid for Wednesday Evening

-- The RPM is picking up rain as Surface Temps should stay warm enough for Rain, Mid-Levels suggest Snow.

Don't be surprised if a few flakes could mix in after Sunset just North of TN. 









TURKEY DAY

Expect some clear skies and a "slightly cool" afternoon, but DRY so far as High Pressure builds with Temperatures in Low 50°s for MidTN & Upper 40°s for Southern KY/Bowling Green areas.

11/16: Mid-November SNOW

Quite an interesting Setup we have for parts of the Ohio/TN Valleys this late Sunday Evening.

LOTS of Cold Air from the High Plains and Canada is carving down in our neck of the Woods and mixing in at the surface with lots of moisture from the Gulf as a new Surface Low is deepening in MS/AL.  Our atmosphere here in MidTN is 'Just' a little warmer so we should see more Rain thru overnight as the changeover will be brief for a few hours with Lgt Snow falling.
  ** HEAVIER Amounts of Banding (Deformation) will likely stay North along the Ohio River in the Louisville area where some could see a Half-Foot or more into Ohio..


COOL and Breezy for Monday as the Snow tapers off after Noon while the Low races off toward the North and East.

SNOW AMOUNTS are shown below (Nashville area) from different Model Guidance sites I use to Forecast

Iowa St Meteogram

HI-RES RAPID REFRESH

-- The Hi-Res shows a broad area of a Tr-1" across MidTN, but it just depends on how much "Dynamic Cooling" we can see this evening IF you want higher amounts. North/NW of Nashville will likely see 1" or so.  2nd Band could form near Louisville where it could dump 3-5" in Isol'd spot.  I do like the 2-4" range for the Derby City.

-- This is the 4km RPM showing that strong band of 4-6" just N of Louisville along the Ohio River and maybe 3-5" along I-71 if you have travel plans toward Cincy.

-- A broad 2-4" is likely for North-Central KY and farther into Southern KY maybe an Inch or so; closer to 2" in Isol'd heavier band.

-- HERE, the RPM for MidTN and WesternTN shows a streak of a Dusting to 1" W of I-65 to Memphis, even in AR/MO.  Just think our Temperatures in the mid-40°s all day kept us "warmer" as the Cold Air will take a much longer time to see the change over.

SNOW Showers are likely with very minor amounts and I like Nashville seeing a Dusting-1/2"... closer to 1" along the KY/TN Line.
-South of Nashville could likely see upto a Dusting.

Cold Front before the COLD Air Invasion

Quite an interesting setup MiddleTN will experience next several days as we have one more "Mild Day" as MOS Guidance suggests Highs in the Mid-Upper 60°s here in Nashville & Low-Mid 60°s in the Plateau.

HERE are the Normals for our Area as of November 10th. Like I mentioned, Tuesday should read above Normal for many of us

TUESDAY:
The Cold Front from the North & West will usher in some moisture but it will NOT be a Severe Weather event, just some increasing clouds in the Afternoon and Showers by the Evening Rush Hour. Not expecting a lot of rain, but enough to moisten the grounds.  NAM/GFS 0z model guidance both show the Front and Rain chances across MidTN

LATE WEEK:

Say "Good Bye" to the T-Shirts and welcome in "winter coats" and "Sweaters" as our Weather Pattern shifts to the COLDER side.  Many have heard the so-called Polar Vortex striking the Eastern 1/2 of the Country well get over it...Many of us Meteorologists know of it and don't like to call it, as many weather enthusiasts and media Hype it up for everyone.

<< GREAT Write-Up discussing what is occurring.  The Jet Stream choke a piece of this cold air and dropping South for a few days AND some Moisture is possible that could create some concerns late weekend...more on that later.

  The CORE of the Cold Arctic Air will stay in the Great Lakes as MidTN will stay about 70-80% Below Normal for next several days.

HIGHS should climb only in the 40's and LOWS will drop likely in the 30's and some Mid 20's in a few outlying areas.











LATE WEEKEND "WINTRY" SETUP

Don't get too Hyped up, Snow Lovers.  Its still 5 Days away but a chance of Wintry Precip is possible when a Low forms to our South from TX and moves East along the Atlantic Coast. Just enough Cold Air is possible with this moisture to the South could "over-run" and bring chances of Snow/Mix by Sunday.  Could become a Cold Rain event by Late Saturday & Early Sunday, BUT the GFS shows a Cooler Trend of Snow by Sunday Aftn/PM

*  The EURO Model suggests it to be a little weaker, not much precip and a little warmer once the wave moves in, thus it could be a Rain Shower chance.

* Canadian (GEM) Model shows NOTHING with this wave, but cooler and dry as this front passes.



Still a long ways away til we Snow Chances here in the Music City, BUT the anomalies are trending Cooler and Wintry Precipitation possible.

9/7: Quick Warmup before Mid-Week Storms and Much COOLER Blast

Good Sunday,

Talk about a "cooler" Sunday we experienced here in Middle TN with Highs only in the Upper 70°s before late afternoon Sunshine made a peek.

Slightly above Average Temps will make a Return though as Ridging will develop from the South and spread Mid-Upper 80°s across the region.  I do think Wednesday could be the 'Warmer' day with highs creeping in Upper 80°s-Lower 90°s with Humidity building back in.
*NOTE* the Much cooler Air surging from the High Plains into the 50's/60's in some spots.  Light SNOW is possible up in Wyoming, Montana and maybe South Dakota

NAM FORECAST TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY

STORM CHANCES on Thursday?
A sharp Cold Front will blast farther South towards the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with chances of Strong to Severe Storms, but right now it looks to be Small Hail and High Winds as the greatest risk.  Timing is still hard to tell, but from Late Morning to Early Evening Thursday is the best Time-frame when the Storms should drop through. 

GFS Precip at 1PM Thursday

BEHIND the Front, Frost is possible in the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, but ahead of it is will be the potential of Strong Storms from the Northeast down towards the ArkLaTex.













EARLY FALL for MiddleTN?

Long Range models may suggest that after Wednesday, that could be our LAST 90°+  Day, but as how Climate changes, we can't just assume right now. However, below average Temps about 5-10° are likely beginning Thursday once the Front drops. GFS/EURO Models suggest anywhere from 74-79° for daytime Highs ~ OPEN A/C! We will see how the trends continue through the week with the Temps and any Storm Threat for MiddleTN.

THURSDAY's Forecast Highs 

4/14: WINTER makes a Return in the Spring

Evening Folks,

Snow chances look to be slim, but will be a Frosty and Freezy Night along the Corridor. NWS Louisville has issued a Freeze Watch for a good chunk of the area.

Temperatures will likely dip below Freezing so bundle up as you head out the door in the Morning for your Commute to work.  

TUESDAY itself looks to Cold, but Sunny & Dry.

< A Canadian Trough drops in with a cool Northwest Flow across the Corridor.  Below Avg Temperatures will follow in the Lower 40°s after a few spotty Freezing Drizzle Showers.


Slightly Warmer & Mild on Wednesday, but MUCH Warmer on Thursday with Above Avg. Temperatures climbing.