3/4: WINTER STORM on its way for the I-65 Corridor

TONIGHT: Its the plain 'ole liquid Rain Showers for several of us through the Overnight.

   ** As of 11PM Central, most of the rain is situated along and South of the Ohio River.  The rain-shield will slowly shift South, as a few could hear a rumble of Thunder during the Overnight with some Heavier Showers forming in the muggy, mild Mid 60°s Airmass ahead of the Cold Front.  

** DO YOU SEE the Changeover in Missouri?  The Snow/Sleet will slowly trek South as the Arctic Air moves in Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY:  It will be a day full of Transitions...from  Precipitation and Temperatures.  Everyone will see a "Cold Rain" through the Morning and Early Afternoon Hours.  

  - Bowling Green should see the changeover from Rain to Sleet by Late Afternoon-Early Evening. As for the Snow timing, looks to be all Snow as early as 9pm..but right before Midnight is a good time frame.  Periods of Moderate-Heavy SNOW should increase through the Overnight Hours. Snow should lighten up by mid-morning THURSDAY and turn drier little after Noon.

- Nashville will experience the "Transition" a little later than Bowling Green, being a little warmer than Bowling Green.  ALL RAIN through the Morning, Afternoon and Early Evening Hours as of right now.  Wintry Mix/Sleet looks to change over between 9PM-12AM, I do expect "Lots" of SLEET for MiddleTN/Nashville as the Warm Air profile may support in the mid-levels; I think this is where the Boundary Stalls.

AMOUNTS: * via 0z Evening Data

-- The "Heaviest" band of Snow via GFS is carving right across Central KY (6-10") and lesser amounts farther South into Middle TN.

-- As for Middle TN, looking to be 1-3" amounts in Nashville Area through Thursday late morning

-- Here is the NAM Model.  Its showing quite aggressive amounts more than the GFS.  I think they may be adding some Sleet Amounts.

IF this verifies, your looking at a swath of over a FOOT from Paducah-Louisville-Lexington.

At least 6-12" for Southern KY, and a Few Inches for MiddleTN.

RPM Model, however, is certainly an Outlier for any Snow Lover in KY.  Hardly anything (1-3") as where the Snow drops South into our area of Middle TN (3-6").  Hard to take this one in account,  but we have to watch trends IF any of the other models drop South.

ONE MORE THING...

I also use the Iowa St Meteogram that provides Ranges from Models and includes the NWS thoughts for certain cities.  Here is what the Meteogram suggests...

Nashville: 1-3" (Snow); 1/3"- 2/3" (Sleet);  .10"-.20" (Freezing Rain)

Bowling Green: 4-9" (Snow); .25"-.50" (Sleet); .10"-.25" (Freezing Rain)

Louisville: 6-12" (Snow) ; .20"-.40" (Sleet)

** I think the worse of the Snow will stay North of Middle TN into KY once again.  Freezing Rain doesn't look as threatening though, since i think there will be "not as much" warmer air in the Mid-Levels.  Sleet will be the worse but a 1-3" is possible for much of Nashville Area..and 2-5" for Northern Tier of the State.  ***

3/1: "Roller Coaster Ride" on the Way.

Happy Meteorological Spring Folks! Its March 1st.  Many celebrate the Vernal Equinox on March 21st as the 1st Day of Spring..but it will feel like Spring just for one Day on TUESDAY, then WINTER returns in a hurry by Wednesday.

Im calling this an Eric Church Special...join me as we are on his "Roller Coaster Ride".

* By the Way, I am a huge EC Fan of his non-mainstream country approach about life, family and what Country music is about.  He's our Country Music Jesus.
 
The Outsiders album has a song for this Blog Post Them...
Click HERE -- Roller Coaster Ride to Listen.




OKAY, back to the Forecast Folks.

MONDAY looks to be fine...maybe a little "Black Ice" in the Morning as any leftover moisture could drape on the bridges and overpasses for the morning rush.



TUESDAY will be "Warm Day" as we'll likely see a Warm Front move in spreading rain chances in he Morning.  Some breaks in the clouds could allow the winds increase; few Isolated showers cant be ruled out in the Afternoon.  Lots of Warm Air Advection out of the Southwest will allow Temps to warm in the Mid 60°s at night in Nashville/Middle TN area as Lower 60°s for Southern KY.

** NOT a Tornado threat folks for this one at Night. Winds in the Upper, Mid, and Lower levels are forecasted to blow from the Southwest so no Wind Shear (changing of winds in direction in height) will likely not happen at this time.

  Storms should fire up as the "Low Level Jet" increases and provides some Gusty Winds and Heavy Rainfall with this one through Late Tuesday and Overnight Wednesday as the Cold Front passes.

** Right Now, it looks like the Front will drop through Southern KY and Middle TN and stall out along the way ( not moving much)




WEDNESDAY:

This will be a very hard forecast since the Timing, Precip Amounts, and Track is still up in the Air.
- The "Potential" is there for someone to see another 6" of Snow..and Sleet/Freezing Rain threat too.
- The Guidance Models are up in the Air at this time so no consistency is having it tough to track this storm.

WHAT WE KNOW:  
1)   A Front will stall in the OH/TN Valley allowing Colder Air to push in with a new Low forming from the Southwest to ride along spreading Wintry Weather.
2)  Late Morning/Early Afternoon start on the Wintry Mix changeover and Light Snow for many on Late Afternoon Wednesday as most of the Snow will exit us after 6AM Thursday...(pushing East towards the Plateau)

<< The Short-Range Ensemble has a swath of 4"+ of Snow that is very High (50% or more) right through Middle TN and Southeastern KY.

The SREF was fairly accurate who was going to see that 8"+ swath 2 weeks ago in Southern KY, so we may have to watch these trends in next couple days.


*** The Potential, as stated, is there, for a Big Snow (6"+) in our Area again.  However, a Bust is possible as like many Southern Storms, it can Shift slightly North.  A 50 Mile difference can make a large difference. Plus, where will the Front stall plays a factor of where the "Snow Zone" sets up for the larger amounts. **