1/27: Tuesday PM Weather Talk

Before I go in depth into Tonight's forecast, remember this Weather Event?  Yeah, we had Snow in KY, but the worse impact was the crippling Ice Storm along the Western KY Parkway where 1-2" of Ice piled up.  One of the worse and costliest states disasters we experienced.

via NWS Louisville

WHEW... What a Cloudy, Cool, Raw, Ugly, Gloomy, Dry, Blahhh day for many of us.  I don't know what other amazing Adjectives to describe our Tuesday. Even a few Snow/Sleet showers popped up late Afternoon, early Evening across our Area.

But wait... we have the chance to see that nice ball of Sunshine for our WEDNESDAY folks.  That'll help our diurnal heating warm up back in the Middle-40°s




THURSDAY will be a touch Warmer for all in the Lower-Mid 50°s, but our next Frontal Passage from the West will swing in bring another round of Rain Showers in the Afternoon.

WEEKEND STORM???  

Last night I mentioned, how the Canadian Model showed the SNOW Chances.  Guidance Models have shifted more North as the Low from Texas is trending to race in the Ohio Valley. IF a Low is on top us, chances likely it will be rain and Snow North of the Ohio River in IN/IL/OH.  Plain 'ole Rain for much of MiddleTN and Southern KY during the day on Super Bowl Sunday if your going out to watch the game, but may get a little 'dicey' late after the Game.

There is a chance we could see some "Light Accumulations" late Sunday into Early Monday on the back side as the Cold Air ushers in IF there is enough Moisture left.  Best Snow potential looks to be in KY at this time, but its a Forecast...we have to watch Trends from now through Saturday.

1/26: A "Clipper" returns with Snow Chances

TONIGHT appears to be another unsettled evening Precipitation wise as Cooler Air is already ushering in with Temperatures as of 5:00PM in Nashville at 36°   Another Clipper will drop through with Light Snowfall with very minor accumulations through Saturday Morning.  The latest HRRR depicts upto a Dusting to 1/2" across MiddleTN and SoKY.  May be a "heavier" band but upto and Inch can't rule out in the Plateau by daybreak tomorrow.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON through WEDNESDAY looks rather Calm and Dry with Temperatures staying in the Middle 40°s as of right now with the latest data and my Forecast.

 















THURSDAY  will be our next Rain Chance as Frontal Passage moves in.  Not a big rain chance, but enough to throw one in :)

**SUPER BOWL SUNDAY SNOWSTORM ??????  ***
   This storm has been hyped up for a couple weeks already..1st as a Severe Weather event in mid-January now to a SNOW Storm for the Ohio/TN Valleys.  I am still NOT buying into it yet, However.. one Model (Canadian) is blasting about 6-12" in Central/Southern KY and a few Inches in Middle TN.  Its a "classic storm/Low track" as a Low rides to our South in Dixie and feeds Moisture in the area with Dynamic Cooling.
-- Remember, this is NOT A Forecast, and being 120 hour out..Two other models (GFS & Euro) is less aggressive.  I do think IF there is a Snow chance, it could be in Central/Southern KY right now. 

1/20: Rain Chances then SNOW Chances "looming" ?

Not a bad Tuesday for our Region as we experienced another Mild afternoon, but clouds increased as our Next weather maker will impact us late Tonight.  Its only a small 20-30% chance, BUT I think anywhere I-40 and points North could see a sprinkle little after Midnight.

 
 
 
 
 
 


























WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY  Looks to be fairly "tranquil" and dry with zonal flow some seasonal Temperatures in the Upper 40°s/Lower 50°s, but the System from the West will slide into TX; thus that will setup our Wintry Chance come late Friday

And speaking of FRIDAY, looks to be a Rainy afternoon for much of Middle TN & Southern KY.
 However, the very latest Model guidance suggests a Rain to Rain/Snow then SNOW late Evening.
  - An area of Low Pressure in the Gulf is forecasted to strengthen along the Coast and some "cooler air" on the back side can create the right ingredients for some Light Snow across Middle TN and the Plateau; even through Southern KY too.

*  Though this is the 18z Run (doesn't show Upper Air Data), the 12z Run showed the changeover.

- Monday's data didn't show much of the moisture into TN, but its worthy of watching through Thursday.  The Low will strengthen as it churns along the Gulf Stream. 





SATURDAY could see a few stray Flurries across Middle TN as the system departs Eastward, but staying Dry and Cool.

SUNDAY will start off Dry and Cool, BUT a "Clipper" is possible as it drops from the Midwest into the TN/OH Valleys by the Overnight. TOO long ways to discuss but Model Guidance varies beyond 3 days.

 

1/14: Wednesday Evening Wx Talk

Quite a Surprise many of us woke up and drove through across Nashville and Middle TN as a small piece of energy draped a Dusting of SNOW.  Melted fast as the Sun came out in the Afternoon with Highs only climbing in the Mid 30°s

THURSDAY:  An another "piece of energy" from the Gulf will spread moisture as Rain in Dixie, but some Cooler Air could provide another layer of Light SNOW for morning Rush Hour with a Dusting possible. ALL Guidance Models suggest it so expect a fast exit of this after Noon.

 
 
 




















FRIDAY/SATURDAY:  A Warming Trend is on tap as a ridge of High Pressure will build into the South keeping us Dry & Seasonal with Highs in Upper 40°s on Friday & Low-Mid 50°s for Saturday.

 
 




















SUNDAY looks to be the challenging day as our next "Storm System" dives across the Mid State of TN with Cooler Air and Moisture.   I wont be surprised if we see a few snow shower chances in the Plateau, but a Cold Rain is possible in the Lower Elevations for Middle TN.

** Sunday's System is still not set in Stone as the Front/Trough drops, but I do think Light Accumulation is possible mainly in the Plateau if there is enough Moisture.

	Thurs.	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday
HIGH	41	47	54	48	50
LOW	27	30	35	30	34

1/13: Tuesday PM Weather Talk

"CLOUDY with a 100% chance of more Cloudiness"

Certainly a cloudy, raw, and cool Tuesday all across Middle TN as Highs stayed in the 30°s for much of MiddleTN.

WEDNESDAY seems to be the same but maybe a little bit of Afternoon sunshine is possible, but staying Dry/Cool once again.

THURSDAY:  It is still "too uncertain" what to expect, but a small Vort Max from the Gulf will spread a little rain from LA to GA and maybe if there is "enough" moisture, some Flurries/Wintry Mix could impact MiddleTN/Southern KY in the mid-late morning hours.  However Guidance Models are 1/2 and 1/2 on it.    The RPM and Euro shows just enough to spit out, but the Euro is a 'tad aggressive sometimes.  I'm calling it a 10-20% chance for Middle TN.


Thursday Morning via 12zEURO



 

After that, a Warming Trend builds into the South with Ridging support from the Southwest. FRIDAY & SATURDAY will be fairly Mild and Dry with slightly above Seasonal Temps.


 

SATURDAY 12PM Temps via GFS

NEXT SYSTEM looks to be on Sunday but the EURO is a touch more aggressive than the Canadian/GFS 12z runs.   I say "dry" for right now, but I think I want to wait a couple days til we know for certain. 

	NASHVILLE   5-DAY FORECAST
	Weds.	Thurs	Friday	Sat.	Sunday
HIGH	37	43	47	56	46
LOW	26	27	32	35	30

1/8: Thursday PM Weather Talk

Quite a COLD start for all of Middle TN as Temperatures dropped in the lower Single Digits as some of us to the East in the Plateau dropped below 0°  around Crossville/Jamestown areas.

Another Cold evening with a few thin clouds as Lows once again will be below average, but "Better" in the Lower 20°s.

FRIDAY:

More of a benign weather patter with some zonal flow as Highs will stay cool again as we'll reach in the Middle 20°s.


Friday Afternoon Highs at 3PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WEEKEND:

 

A quiet but a Chilly Saturday as High Pressure is draped over us.  Mix of Sun and Clouds in the area as we will stay dry, thanks to the High.  Though, a NEW system from the Southwest in Texas will emerge and spread moisture in the ArkLaTex for late Saturday...

 

SUNDAY shows that System spreading a little farther Northeast into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.  Earlier in the week, it looked the High would be dominant to keep us 'cooler', however the High is weaker and will shift to the North...allowing "warmer" precip to arrive our region.  Plain 'ole Rain Showers' will saturate MiddleTN come late Sunday Afternoon/Evening. 

 

IF your travelling North, Wintry Mix potential in KY/IN areas along the Ohio and Snow farther North.  Most guidance models are suggesting this at this time.  The Canadian (GEM) run is more bullish suggesting KY getting hit, but we just have to monitor the trends.  "Maybe" some icing is possible in the Carolina's for Sunday PM as the High builds with some Cold Air Damming taking shape on the Lee-Side of the Appalachians.

 

1/6: ARCTIC Outbreak invades MidTN

Been quite a "cooler" stretch of Weather lately with lot of Cloudy skies to ring in the New Year of 2015, BUT...the Sunshine has made a return for the first part of this week.  Now, we are in the stretch of the "COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON" all across Middle TN and the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. 

WEDNESDAY: Our COLD Front will blast through with some breezy Northwest Winds and a very "small" chance of seeing a few flurries are possible in the Morning, but with it being moisture starved, I don't see much out of it. 

- The NAM/GFS/EURO suggests no precip, but the WRF is showing just enough moisture.  I'm calling a very slight chance of a flurry or two in the Morning.









WEDNESDAY NIGHT:   Bundle Up!  It'll be the coldest air of the Season (as mentioned above)  when the Skies clear, winds calm down, as High pressure builds.  LOWS will be in the Single Digits and Wind Chills below zero.




Rest of Week:  We will stay fairly cool as Zonal Flow (Quiet Weather) works in as we will moderate our Temperatures but remain colder than Normal.

LATE WEEKEND:

Its still not "set in stone" just yet, but a Wintry Mix system could threaten parts of the Southeast as we roll into Sunday.  Low Confidence ATM since the GFS and Canadian models are hinting as and Icing threat is possible either in the Carolina's OR in the TN/OH Valleys; clipping Middle TN and Southern KY.  Keeping a close eye on this system.


12zGFS for Sunday Night




 



12z Canadian for Sunday Afternoon

	NASHVILLE   5-DAY FORECAST
	Weds.	Thurs	Friday	Sat.	Sunday
HIGH	23	24	31	34	44
LOW	5	20	14	24	31